Research

Probability, combinatorics, and rare events in random graphs.

My research studies rare events in random discrete structures, with a particular focus on subgraph counts, conditioned structure, and sampling in sparse random graphs.

Research Output

Preprint and invited talks

Preprint | September 2026

Local large deviations for triangles in sparse random graphs

Jade Lintott, Will Perkins, and Corrine Yap

We give first-order asymptotics for local lower-tail probabilities of triangle counts in sparse random graphs, characterize the conditional distribution of the triangle set, and give an efficient algorithm to approximately sample from the conditional graph distribution.

Invited talks

Research seminars

  • University of Nebraska-Lincoln Discrete Math Seminar, March 2026
  • Georgia State University Combinatorics Seminar, February 2026

Dissertation Research

Local large deviations for sparse random structures

Imagine a network in which each pair of vertices is connected at random. A triangle appears when three vertices are all connected to one another. My dissertation studies sparse networks with unusually few of these small patterns: how likely they are, what their triangles look like, and how to generate examples efficiently.

The word local refers to asking for an exact count, rather than a range of counts. My work connects precise probability estimates with descriptions of how triangles overlap, using that understanding to develop approximate sampling algorithms. More broadly, I am interested in how rare events shape random combinatorial structures.

Advisor: Will Perkins · PhD expected May 2027

Current themes

  • Lower tails and large deviations for subgraph counts
  • Conditioned structure in sparse random graphs
  • Sampling methods for rare-event random graph models

Projects

Current and recent projects

Note on ongoing work. This page omits collaborations in progress because of concerns about preliminary results being scooped using large language models (LLMs).

Current preprint

Lower tails for triangle counts

My work with Will Perkins and Corrine Yap studies local lower-tail asymptotics for triangle counts and a transition in the conditioned distribution of triangles in sparse random graphs.

Broader program

Conditioned geometry and sampling

A central goal of my work is to describe the structures that realize rare events and use those descriptions to design efficient approximate sampling methods.

Next directions

Beyond triangles

I am interested in extending these ideas to more general subgraphs and to wider families of sparse random structures.

Research Profile

What organizes the work

  • Sharp asymptotic questions for rare events in random graphs
  • Structural descriptions of conditioned combinatorial objects
  • Sampling perspectives that connect probability and algorithms